As Donald Trump seeks to return to the White House, questions about his potential foreign policy strategy loom. Unconventional decisions marked his first term; the next could be even more unpredictable. However, considering present-day uncertainties and conflicts worldwide, there may arise a need for these unconventional decisions. This post breaks down expectations across key regions and issues, from Ukraine to China, NATO, and global climate deals.
Ukraine: A Shift in U.S. Support?
Trump’s stance on Ukraine suggests a notable reduction in U.S. financial backing, which is critical in Ukraine’s resistance against Russia, amounting to over $175 billion in support. Over his recent meeting with Zelenskyy, Trump further expressed a desire to end the conflict swiftly, claiming, “I want them to stop dying. And I’ll have that done… in 24 hours.” His relationship with Vladimir Putin remains ambiguous. While mutual admiration has been noted in the past, how this will translate into policy is uncertain. Trump’s challenge will be balancing a tough domestic image with avoiding the perception of being soft on Russia.
NATO: A Troubled Relationship
Trump’s scepticism toward NATO is well-documented. During his first term, he called NATO “obsolete” and threatened to withdraw the U.S. from the alliance. His rhetoric challenges the principle of collective security in Article V, obliging members to defend one another. Financially, Trump may push European allies to shoulder more of the alliance’s costs, emphasizing burden-sharing as a central theme. This could strain transatlantic relations, particularly if Trump follows through on threats to impose new obligations on the U.S. However, on a domestic front, doing so could help slowly recover the national deficit, which is urgent for any government in power.
Middle East: A Balancing Act
Support for Israel is expected to remain strong, driven in part by domestic political considerations, especially among evangelical Christians. Trump’s close relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signals continued alignment but does not rule out pressure when needed.
In the Gulf, Trump’s ties with leaders in the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are likely to continue, though questions persist about the reliability of U.S. support under his leadership. His rhetoric toward Iran has been aggressive, but there’s scepticism about his willingness to engage in direct military interventions, possibly giving Israel more freedom in confronting Tehran.
China: Competition and Conflict
Trump views China as a primary strategic competitor. His admiration for President Xi Jinping as a “strong leader” contrasts with his aggressive trade policies. Under his leadership, tariffs on Chinese goods reached an average of 18%, with threats of further hikes up to 60%. Beyond trade, Trump may focus on reducing U.S. economic dependence on China, emphasizing reshoring supply chains. His rhetoric around artificial intelligence suggests a perception of technological competition as an “arms race.” The situation regarding Taiwan remains unpredictable, with potential shifts in the U.S. approach to the One China Policy.
Climate Change and Illegal Immigration: Hardline Policies
Trump’s climate change scepticism is likely to shape his environmental policy. He plans to withdraw the U.S. from the 2015 Paris Agreement again, favouring deregulation in fossil fuels and adopting a “drill baby drill” stance on oil and gas production. On illegal immigration, Trump has pledged to implement the “largest domestic deportation in U.S. history,” hinting at the use of military resources to enforce this. His relationship with Mexico may become strained as he considers unilateral actions against drug cartels and border facilities.
Trump’s potential return to the White House raises significant questions about the direction of U.S. foreign policy. From Ukraine to NATO, China, and climate change, his positions challenge traditional approaches, favouring unpredictability and a transactional lens. While some may view this as a necessary recalibration of U.S. priorities, others see risks in the strain it could place on alliances and global stability. As Trump’s vision unfolds, its impact will depend on balancing domestic goals with international expectations.
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