Sky News, 2024
DISCLAIMER: The following article was written prior to the results of the US election.
The U.S. presidential election commands a global audience, as American voters make choices with far-reaching implications. The incoming president will not only face the challenges of two active conflicts in Europe and the Middle East but also contend with strengthening ties among authoritarian regimes that disrupt global stability. The election outcome may reshape international security, trade, and multinational institutions, with each candidate presenting unique foreign policy visions that impact NATO’s trajectory, trade relations with China, and U.S. influence in Latin America.
A Trump victory is anticipated to catalyse a realignment of NATO, with Trump’s “America First” stance suggesting a willingness to shift military responsibilities onto European allies, compelling them to assume greater defence roles. This shift would not only place strain on European military budgets but could also lead to an insecure balance of power, given Europe’s reliance on U.S. strategic assets. Furthermore, Trump’s approach could see NATO re-evaluate its stance on Ukraine, potentially undermining the alliance's united front against Russian aggression. This recalibration might be framed as an attempt to ease tensions with Russia but risks destabilising Europe, weakening the transatlantic alliance, and emboldening authoritarian states. In contrast, a Harris administration would likely seek to maintain NATO commitments and a firm stance on Ukraine, continuing the U.S.’s traditional role in European security and safeguarding the stability that European nations depend on, however this would occur at a further deficit to the US economy given continuous recent spending on foreign aid.
The global economy faces varying outcomes based on the election results. Under Trump, protectionist policies may emerge, with higher tariffs and renegotiated trade agreements, particularly affecting China. This would disrupt global supply chains and raise costs for consumers, posing immediate challenges for Canada and renewed pressure on Mexico regarding migration. China would likely face stricter economic restrictions, further affecting supply chains. Conversely, a Harris administration would likely maintain existing trade agreements, fostering a cooperative approach with China while providing stability for Canada, Mexico, and other partners. This could preserve global supply chains, with adjustments to bolster American manufacturing and support allies. However, it must be taken into account that through the tariff measures, the US could begin to recuperate and overturn its fiscal deficit through the increased revenue, establishing benefits and disadvantages of both leaders' plans towards trade.
The 2024 U.S. election carries significant global stakes for international stability and economic integration. A Trump administration could alter alliances and create trade uncertainties while it could also improve the domestic state. However, a Harris presidency might maintain continuity with some adjustments emphasising U.S. commitments to global security, yet it may further extend the country's fiscal deficit. Ultimately, the outcome will either reinforce or reshape longstanding international norms and alliances, positioning the globalised world at a critical crossroads.
Sources:
Victor Cha, Foreword: An Election of Global Consequence (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, September 26, 2024)
Max Bergmann, Sissy Martinez, et al., “After the Ballots: What the U.S. Elections Mean for NATO,” in The Global Impact of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, ed. Victor Cha and Nicholas Szechenyi (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2024), 40.
Max Bergmann, Sissy Martinez, et al., “After the Ballots: What the U.S. Elections Mean for NATO,” in The Global Impact of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, ed. Victor Cha and Nicholas Szechenyi (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2024), 42.
Max Bergmann, Sissy Martinez, et al., “After the Ballots: What the U.S. Elections Mean for NATO,” in The Global Impact of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, ed. Victor Cha and Nicholas Szechenyi (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2024), 41.
Ryan C. Berg, Christopher Hernandez-Roy et al., “The 2024 Presidential Election and the United States’ Shared Neighborhood,” in The Global Impact of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, ed. Victor Cha and Nicholas Szechenyi (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2024), 14.
Giuseppe Spatafora, “TRUMP, HARRIS AND TRANSATLANTIC UNCERTAINTIES: What Choices for Europe?” European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), 2024, 3.
Ryan C. Berg, Christopher Hernandez-Roy et al., “The 2024 Presidential Election and the United States’ Shared Neighborhood,” in The Global Impact of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, ed. Victor Cha and Nicholas Szechenyi (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2024), 16.
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